India-Pak Ceasefire: 5 signs how military overshadows democracy in Pakistan

India-Pak Ceasefire: Pakistan is a democracy. The tryst with decades of military rule is, however, one of the country's many dubious distinctions.

On Saturday, India and Pakistan announced the decision to stop firing and military action on land and in the air from 5 PM. Hours later, however, there were violations of the ceasefire or ‘bilateral arrangement’ from Pakistan.

On May 9, a petition was filed in a Pakistani court for the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan due to the fear of a drone attack on the prison where he is kept, amid esclating tensions with India after the deadly Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir.

Khan, 72, is incarcerated in Adiala Jail of Rawalpindi. He was arrested in May 2023, soon after he lost the vote of confidence as prime minister of Pakistan.

On 08 May, Thursday in the evening hours, while India was intercepting Pakistan's missile and drone attack on military stations in the north and cities in the west, #ReleaseImranKhan was trending on social media. Many on social media  slammed the country's army chief, General Asim Munir, for his ‘selfish motto’ against India.

Imran Khan lost power because Army stopped liking him, many analysts say. He is not the first Prime Minister whose term was influenced, rather cut short by Pakistani Army.

Here are five ways in which the military overshadows and fails democracy in Pakistan.

1- No Prime Minister Ever Completed Full Term

Of the 20 prime ministers the country has had so far, no one has ever completed the full five-year term. Shehbaz Sharif, the incumbent, has been the prime minister of Pakistan since March 2024.

Imran Khan was the prime minister of Pakistan from August 2018 to April 22, when the cricketer-turned-politician lost a no-confidence vote and was ousted from office.

A year later, on 9 May 2023, Khan was arrested from inside the Islamabad High Court by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on the charges of corruption in connection with the Al-Qadir Trust, which he owns alongside his wife, Bushra Bibi.

2- The Democracy of Dictatorship?

Ever since it was formed in 1947, Pakistan has been ruled by military dictators for approximately 25 years. The country had a military ruler as the head of state after three coups – from 1958 to 1971, 1977 to 1988, and 1999 to 2008.

General Ayub Khan, General Zia ul Haq and General Pervez Musharraf are the three dictators who ruled Pakistan for about 25 years.

Pakistan's tryst with dictators has been written about in the country and beyond. One of the most vocal Pakistani poets during General Ayub Khan's tenure between 1958 and 1977 was Habib Jalib.

‘Mein ne us se yeh kaha…'

Among other works, Jalib is known for his powerful satire “Mein ne us se yeh kaha” (I said this to him), which became one of his most referred-to verses from the dictatorship era. 

The poem reminds the dictator (Ayub Khan in this case) how only he can salvage Pakistan, how only he can take it from night to day. Jalib died in 1993. But about 35 years after Jalib's death, the memories of dictatorship have not waned in Pakistan.

3- Weakness of Civilian Governments

Experts said the military's involvement in Pakistan's political landscape has manifested in various forms, including orchestrating coups, toppling civilian governments, and exercising indirect control over feeble administrations. The military intervention in Pakistan's political landscape is often attributed to the perceived weakness of civilian institutions, they said.

"These interventions often transpired through collaboration with other influential actors, including the judiciary, civil bureaucracy, allied politicians, religious leaders, and elements within the corporate sector, collectively known as “the establishment,” read a February 2024 essay by Sania Muneer and Saroj Kumar Aryal on ‘Observer Research Foundation (ORF)’ – a global think tank.

Sania is a postdoctoral fellow at SOAS University of London while Saroj is an Assistant Professor at the University of Warsaw, Poland.

The last elections held on 8 February in Pakistan were controversial amid allegations of rigging, and Shehbaz Sharif was again elected as prime minister.

4- Pak Army's Economic Interests

Among other troubles, Pakistan's economy currently faces a host of challenges, including high levels of debt, recurring fiscal and current account deficits, low productivity, and a difficult business environment.

The country's foreign reserves, for example, declined by more than $150 million in the first week of March this year, according to Pakistan's central bank. From ₹3.06 trillion (US$11 billion) at the beginning of General Pervez Musharraf's regime in 1999, Pakistan's debt had surged to ₹62.5 trillion (US$220 billion) by the end of Imran Khan’s government in 2022.

Political instability and poor governance further exacerbate these issues, leading to a balance of payments crisis and a high cost of living, according to experts.

Former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa had reportedly expressed his inability to fight with India during a meeting with a group of 20-25 journalists some time in 2021.

“General Bajwa explained to us that the Pakistani army had no money and fuel to operate tanks if it wanted to fight a war with India,” a journalist, who was part of one of the off-the-record briefings by the former Army Chief in 2021, told this reporter in 2023.

In Pakistan, the military has effectively utilised its influence over the state to augment its economic power, experts said. “This involvement in industry, commerce, and business enabled the military to develop a stake in government policies and industrial and commercial strategies,” the ORF essay reads.

On Friday, at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) India emphasised that Pakistan’s military remains deeply involved in the country’s economic affairs, posing risks to reform efforts. “Even with a civilian government in power, the army continues to play an outsized role in domestic politics and extends its tentacles deep into the economy,” India said, citing a 2021 UN report that described military-linked businesses as Pakistan’s “largest conglomerate.”

5- Pakistan's ‘Dirty Work’ for US

Last week, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto acknowledged that the country has a past of supporting terror organisations. Bhutto's remarks came after the country's Defence Minister, Khawaja Asif, in an interview earlier, admitted that Pakistan as a country had been ‘funding’ terrorism for three decades.

“As far as what the defence minister (Asif) said, I don't think it is a secret that Pakistan has a past,” Bhutto said in a conversation with Sky News anchor Yalda Hakim on May 1.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is the chairman of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which is part of Pakistan's ruling bloc.

Asif had shared his thoughts with the same anchor, Yalda Hakim of the British news channel Sky News, after Pahalgam attack. “Well, we have been doing this dirty work for the United States for about three decades, and West, including Britain,” Asif said in the interview.

Pakistan had good relations with the US during military regimes, at least until the United States had interests in Afghanistan, according to experts. Pakistan's civilian leaders are known to have little influence over the formation of foreign policy because of the military’s powerful nature.

“As a result, whenever a diplomatic challenge arises, the civilian apparatus typically takes a hands-off approach… Consequently, foreign powers who have a security interest in the region end up having a robust relationship with the military rather than with the civilian government,” reads the ORF essay.

For the now the borders are calm and no drone attacks or blackouts have been reported from any city since last night. How things unfold from here, only time will tell!

(With inputs from agencies)