Monsoon to gather pace next week; cover country ahead of schedule, says private forecaster Skymet

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon that has slowed down after hitting the Kerala coast on 31 May, will gather pace next week and cover the entire country ahead of its schedule, said private weather forecaster Skymet on Thursday.

If correct, the forecast will provide relief to east and northwest India, which are reeling under an intense heatwave, with temperatures averaging in the range of 45-47°C.

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The forecast comes a day after an official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that monsoon is gathering pace and will strengthen in Maharashtra by 21-22 June.

The southwest monsoon brings nearly 70% of the rain India needs for its farms and to refill reservoirs and aquifers.

Crucial for agriculture

Timely arrival of the monsoon is crucial for India's agricultural sector, considering that around 56% of the net cultivated area and 44% of food production depend on monsoon rainfall. Normal precipitation is essential for robust crop production, maintaining stable food prices, especially for vegetables, and bolstering economic growth.

Agriculture contributes about 14% to India's gross domestic product, underscoring the importance of a good monsoon.

According to Skymet, the Arabian Sea branch is stuck at Navsari on the West Coast for the last about 10 days. The eastern arm from the Bay of Bengal is still worse and has been stagnant for the last about 20 days.

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“Conditions are becoming favourable for the advancement of monsoon over the eastern states of the country and proceed beyond in the next 3-4 days. On 23 June, a trough is seen forming and running across West Uttar Pradesh to East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North Bengal, which is likely to get consolidated the next day and will have an embedded cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. It will strengthen further, and a tight circulation will be marked over central parts of Uttar Pradesh on 25 June,” Skymet said in an official statement.

Intense from 25 June

“Monsoon is likely to advance over West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and East Uttar Pradesh by 24-25 June. The intensity and spread of monsoon rains will increase between 25 and 26 June and will reach Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan, a little ahead of time.

“However, monsoon progress on the western side may remain slow and sluggish. Gujarat will witness the true colour of the monsoon at the far end of the month, between 26 and 29 June. Overall, it could be a repeat of last year, when the monsoon covered the entire country, ahead of its schedule," it added.

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Typically, the southwest monsoon covers West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh around this time in June, entering Uttar Pradesh on 20 June. On the western side, the monsoon reaches Ahmedabad by about 20 June and covers half of Saurashtra and central Gujarat. By 25 June, the stream sways the entire Saurashtra, covering Rajkot and Jamnagar and swath the whole of North Gujarat, leaving only the Kutch region where, as a routine, the progress is at a slow pace.

As per IMD, the country has received 17% deficient rainfall since 1 June.