Southwest monsoon begins withdrawing from west Rajasthan, Kutch

The southwest monsoon begun its retreat from northwest India—west Rajasthan and Kutch—on Monday, a week later than the normal date of withdrawal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.

“Conditions are favourable for withdrawal of monsoon from some more parts of West Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat in the next 24 hours,” the IMD said. “As withdrawal begins, very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over coastal and north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Goa during the next three days and heavy rainfall over central, east, and northeast India between Tuesday and Friday.”

A delayed withdrawal, especially with active rains, could damage maturing crops ready for harvest, posing upside risks to inflation, and may delay the sowing of rabi crops.

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The monsoon generally arrives at the Kerala coast by 1 June and starts retreating around 17 September. This four-month season delivers about 75% of India's annual rainfall, which is essential for agriculture, replenishing water reservoirs, and meeting the country’s power demands. Over half of India's arable land depends on rain, and the sector is among the largest employment remains a major employment source.

Despite a slow start, this year's monsoon brought abundant rainfall, supporting the sowing of summer, or kharif, crops. However, rains were excess in September. India has so far received 5% above-normal rainfall at 878.1 mm.

While the monsoon retreat has begun, full withdrawal will take time, with the IMD forecasting widespread rain in Gujarat and western India this week.

A fresh low-pressure system is expected to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Tuesday, which will likely bring more rain to the southern peninsular regions, including Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and Mahe over the next two days.

The IMD also noted that La Niña is expected to emerge later this month and persist until the end of 2024. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another monsoon influencer, is forecast to remain neutral for the remainder of the season.

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La Niña, marked by cooler sea surface temperatures, typically occurs every 3-5 years and can bring increased rainfall, potentially leading to floods and distinct weather patterns.