Monsoon may regain momentum in next two days, says Skymet

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon, which stalled after reaching Mumbai on 9 June, two days ahead of its usual date, will regain momentum in the next couple of days, according to private weather forecaster Skymet.

"Weather conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for the monsoon to advance across several key regions," Skymet said. “Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Uttar Pradesh can expect the arrival of the monsoon within the next two days.”

This development is critical for the kharif crop season, as planting depends on the first showers of the southwest monsoon. The agriculture ministry is yet to release data on the area sown under various crops due to the slow progress of monsoon, despite its arrival in Kerala on 31 May, a day ahead of schedule and five days earlier than normal in northeast India.

The southwest monsoon brings nearly 70% of the rain India needs for its farms and to refill reservoirs and aquifers.

The timely arrival of monsoon is crucial for India's agricultural sector, considering that around 56% of the net cultivated area and 44% of food production depend on monsoon rainfall. Normal precipitation is essential for robust crop production, maintaining stable food prices, especially for vegetables, and bolstering economic growth.

Agriculture contributes about 14% to India's gross domestic product, underscoring the importance of a good monsoon.

As of 24 June, the national rainfall deficit was 18%, with variations across the country. East and northeast India were deficient by 16%, while the situation is more concerning in northwest India with a staggering 56% deficit. Central India had a 22% shortfall, while the southern Peninsula had a surplus of 10%.

"The coming days, however, bring hope for a significant improvement," Skymet said.

What IMD said

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the north Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, southwest Rajasthan, and southern West Uttar Pradesh.

Recent data from IMD shows a trend of snail-paced monsoon rainfall in June, followed by prolonged, heavy rainfall in September. This shift is accompanied by rising temperatures during monsoon months and an increase in the number of dry days over eastern India.

On heatwave, the IMD noted no significant change in maximum temperatures in northwest and central India over the next two days, with a subsequent drop of 2-4°C. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain largely unchanged in other regions.

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On Monday, maximum temperatures were in the range of 40-43 degree Celsius in Punjab, west Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, west Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and 38-40 degree Celsius over a few parts of west Uttar Pradesh and isolated pockets of Saurashtra and Kutch.

The highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius was reported at Jaisalmer in Rajasthan on Monday. 

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