Behind the ‘Conclave’: The race to succeed Pope Francis

Pope Francis, the first Latin American leader of the Roman Catholic Church, has died, the Vatican said in a video statement on Monday, raising urgent questions about the Vatican's leadership and the future of the Catholic Church. The pontiff had been suffering from a prolonged respiratory crisis and had recently survived a serious bout of double pneumonia.

'Dear brothers and sisters, it is with profound sadness that I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis,' Cardinal Kevin Farrell announced on the Vatican's TV channel. 'At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father.'" The process of selecting a new pope, known as the conclave, typically begins between 15 and 20 days following the death of a pope.

The Conclave: A Quick Transition Likely

The last papal vacancy occurred in 2013, when Pope Benedict XVI, aged 85, became the first pope in 600 years to resign from the position. It took two weeks for Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the Archbishop of Buenos Aires, to be elected as the new pope, later known as Pope Francis.

By Vatican standards, a two-week wait for a new pope isn’t considered long. John Thavis, a papal expert and author of The Vatican Diaries was quoted by NYP that this is not unusual. However, the next transition is likely to be quicker. Thavis explained that the cardinals know the world is watching, and a prolonged conclave lasting over a week would invite unwanted speculation and possibly lose global interest. The last thing cardinals want is for network anchors to pack up their bags without seeing “white smoke” (which signals the election of a new pope) within a week.

Hollywood's ‘Conclave’: Fact vs Fiction

The 2024 film Conclave, an Academy Award-nominated movie, dramatizes the papal election process, showing power-hungry cardinals scheming and conspiring, even amidst a bomb threat on the Vatican. However, experts dismiss the movie as exaggerated. Susan Hanssen, a professor of history at the University of Dallas, described the film as “drenched with banal leftist jargon” and “essentially a form of propaganda.” While the movie is far from reality, it does capture the general timeline of events. Thavis explained that the process involves two stages: an initial period of discussions among cardinals, followed by the conclave itself, where voting takes place in the Sistine Chapel. The voting is private, with no public access.

The Reality of the Conclave

The process of voting in the Sistine Chapel requires a two-thirds majority to elect a new pope. While it’s possible for a conclave to end in a deadlock, Thavis noted that in modern times, voting rarely lasts more than a few days. The last lengthy conclave, in 1740, lasted six months, and the longest on record, in 1268, dragged on for 34 months.

Though cardinals might discuss potential candidates, overt campaigning is considered poor form. Thavis stressed that “no cardinal would campaign for himself,” as that would be considered disastrous. In fact, any form of “wheeling and dealing” — like promising favours in exchange for votes — is not only frowned upon but could even lead to excommunication.

Most Cardinals Would Prefer Not to Be Pope

While the idea of being pope may seem like the ultimate goal, most cardinals are hesitant to seek the job. John L. Allen Jr., a Vatican expert, pointed out that many cardinals see the papacy as more of a burden than an honour, likening it to a life sentence. After all, unlike being the President of the United States, the papacy involves serving until one is physically unable to continue. In contrast, the life of a retired cardinal is far more comfortable, with privileges like “the best seats at all the restaurants and theatres” without the daily grind.

Could an American Become Pope?

The question of whether an American cardinal might be in the running remains a point of debate. Though the United States has the second-largest number of cardinal electors (behind Italy), no American-born pope has ever been elected, New York Post reported. The possibility of an American pope is considered a long shot, especially since American cardinals are often seen as “culture warriors”. Thavis explained that this division within the US Catholic hierarchy, combined with subtle criticisms of Pope Francis, makes other cardinals wary of electing an American.

Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, is a possible candidate, but John L. Allen Jr. considers him more of a long shot. While Dolan is seen as charismatic and globally capable, his “too American” persona could be a drawback. For an American cardinal to be considered, he would need to have significant international experience, be fluent in multiple languages, and show humility, avoiding any stereotypes of American arrogance.

Who Are the Leading Contenders?

Currently, the frontrunners for the papacy are primarily Italian cardinals. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, is seen as a safe choice due to his deep knowledge of Vatican affairs and close ties to Pope Francis. However, Thavis pointed out that his lack of direct pastoral experience could count against him.

Other names in the running include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, President of the Italian Bishops' Conference, Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta, and Cardinal Konrad Krajewski from Poland. Each of these candidates brings different strengths to the table, but Parolin is still considered the most likely to succeed Pope Francis.