US Payroll data shows 12,000 rise in October, hiring at slowest pace since 2020

(Bloomberg) -- US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 in October while the unemployment rate held at a low level in a month distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, following a downward revision to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and hourly earnings remained firm, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ figures released Friday. 

BLS said the hurricanes likely affected payrolls in some industries, but said it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the monthly change in national employment, hours or earnings estimates. They noted the collection rate for the survey of businesses that informs those statistics was “well below average.” BLS also said there was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate. 

Economists had warned the Boeing Co. strike as well as the two powerful hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that hit the Southeast in late September and early October would more negatively impact the payrolls number than the survey that informs the unemployment rate. Payrolls estimates varied widely as a result, from a decline of 10,000 to a gain of 180,000. 

The jobs report is the last major data point on the US economy before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the Nov. 5 presidential election, a race where the issue has consistently ranked top of mind for voters. Other figures this week showed the economy grew at a strong pace in the third quarter, fueled by solid consumer spending, while inflation picked up in September. 

With a number of caveats to glean through, economists and policymakers will likely take little signal from the report, instead looking to other data that show the labor market is cooling gradually.

Stock futures remained higher and Treasury yields dropped following the report.

--With assistance from Chris Middleton and Mark Niquette.

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