Don’t Take Japan’s New Leader Literally. But Should You Take Him Seriously?

Well, that didn’t last long. 

We knew it would be hard to pin down the policies of newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. In his remarks on everything from economic plans to his approach to China he’s been evasive, as he smartly navigated the election campaign that unexpectedly won him control of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party just a week ago.

We didn’t expect him to be this slippery, however. Following the shock victory, investors, analysts and diplomatic corps the world over have been scrambling to understand everything from his take on monetary policy to what he means exactly when he says he wants to form an “Asian NATO,” only for Ishiba to pull the rug out from under them. 

The second day of the job, Ishiba jolted markets with uncharacteristically pointed remarks that it wasn’t the right time to raise interest rates. Investors had assumed he was at least neutral, if not pro-rate hike; not two months ago, Ishiba said the central bank was on “the right policy track” in lifting rates. 

But that wasn’t his only about-face. Foreign ministries across the region were still drafting their thoughts on an Asian NATO, when Ishiba told US President Joe Biden that he was committed to the “latticework of likeminded partners,” Washington’s jargon for the existing combination of various regional partnerships. That effectively puts the brakes on the idea; Ishiba’s new Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya later added that it was “one idea for the future.” 

That’s probably a good thing. Pursuing it could have been a distracting waste of time — I’m far from the only one who had flashbacks to the term of Yukio Hatoyama in 2009, who damaged relations with the US with his nonexistent plan to move a US military base out of Okinawa. 

But Ishiba’s nascent administration is attracting something of a reputation for flip-flopping — and it hasn’t even been a week. He backtracked on comments during the leadership campaign, when he suggested he wouldn’t be in a rush to call a general election after his win. Instead, he will now dissolve parliament just eight days after becoming leader, in what will be the earliest dissolution for a new premier in postwar history. Opposition parties, caught unawares, are livid; Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the largest one, even suggested Ishiba’s declaration of the dissolution on the day before he was confirmed as prime minister could be unconstitutional.

Ishiba had also declared in his policy agenda that he would “quickly and significantly improve the indicators of women’s activities in Japan, which are languishing at the lowest level among developed countries.” He put this into practice with a 20-person strong Cabinet that includes just two women. The agreement between the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito also reportedly makes no reference to the issue of changing the law to allow separate surnames for married couples, something Ishiba has said he supports. 

Sure, a U-turn here and there is part of the job. Ishiba received just 13% of the vote from lawmakers in the first round of last week’s election . He knows he only won because so many members of parliament were reluctant to stomach the thought of a party led by Sanae Takaichi, the right-wing firebrand Ishiba defeated in the runoff vote. 

And being circumspect has its advantages: Another reason for Ishiba’s victory was rival Shinjiro Koizumi’s speaking too openly on certain topics, particularly the need to make it easier for companies to lay off workers. “Say nothing” is often stated to be the secret of winning the LDP leadership race.

Ishiba has reason to roll back policies that might be unpopular. A Nikkei survey found he has the lowest approval rating ever for a prime minister at this stage of his administration. It’s too early for panic: The data only goes back to 2002, and the most popular administrations were short-lived, topped by Hatoyama’s 2009 disaster class. 

But Ishiba will discover that his supply of capital with the public will run out quickly if he offers no break from his predecessor. It’s not enough to simply be anti-Shinzo Abe. Ishiba was chosen due to the party’s desire for change. As he seeks a broader mandate in the general election later this month, he must stake out his position. Popular dissatisfaction with the LDP won’t be fixed if he offers business as usual.

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Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia, and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief.

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