Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying

Oct 2 - U.S. central bankers lopped half of a percentage point from their interest rate target in September. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the bigger-than-expected reduction was a sign of confidence that inflation is headed back to the 2% target and should not be seen as any indication of the pace of cuts going forward. Here is a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story. Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Jerome Powell, Fed Michelle Chair, permanent Bowman, voter: "This is not Governor, a committee that permanent feels like it's in voter: "I a hurry to cut cannot rule out rates quickly." the risk that Sept. 30, 2024 progress on inflation could continue to stall." Sept 24, 2024 John Williams, New Thomas Barkin, York Fed President, Richmond Fed permanent President, 2024 voter: "With the voter: "I'm economy now in more concerned equipoise and about inflation inflation on a path than I am about to 2%, it is now the labor appropriate to dial market ... I'm down the degree of not talking restrictiveness in about some big the stance of resurgence ... policy." Sept 6, But I do think 2024 getting stuck is a very real risk." Oct 2, 2024 Philip Jefferson, Jeffrey Schmid, Vice Chair: "It is Kansas City Fed too early to tell President, 2025 whether the recent voter: "I would slowdown in the agree with disinflationary several of my process will be colleagues that long-lasting. The you probably better reading for want to act April is maybe before encouraging." May 20, 2024 gets to two but that sustainability to two I think is really important." Aug 22, 2024 Michael Barr, Vice Lorie Logan, Chair of Dallas Fed Supervision, President, 2026 permanent voter: voter: "We're "We will need to going to need allow our to see several restrictive policy more months of some further time that data to to continue its really have work." May 20, 2024 confidence in our outlook that we're heading to 2%." June 18, 2024 Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Governor, permanent Minneapolis Fed voter: "I was a big President, 2026 advocate of large voter: "The rate hikes when balance of inflation was risks has moving much, much shifted away faster than any from higher expected. And I inflation and would feel the same toward the risk way on the downside of a further to protect our weakening of credibility of the labor maintaining a 2% market." Sept inflation target." 23, 2024 Sept 20, 2024 Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "I whole heartedly supported the decision." Sept 26, 2024 Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: The Fed "now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy." Sept 25, 2024 Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: "We have to be very mindful that if policy is overly tight, you might get additional slowing in the labor market, and to my mind, that would be unwelcome." Sept 4, 2024 Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: "If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient." Sept 30, 2024 Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, 2025 voter: "For me, it's about easing off the brake at this stage. It's about making policy gradually less restrictive." Sept 27, 2024 Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: "This is a process over a year or more that we're trying to get the rates down to normal ... It's going to be a lot of cuts." Sept 30, 2024 Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "I think a gradual, methodical pace once we are in a different policy stance is likely to be appropriate." Aug 22, 2024 Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: "I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go." Aug 22, 2024 Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the central bank's policy rate in September to the 4.75%-5.00% range, and projections released at the time showed most policymakers expected to reduce the rate by another quarter or half of a percentage point before the end of the year. The Cleveland Fed's new president, Beth Hammack, started her job on Aug. 21 and has not made any public comments on monetary policy. She is not included in this dove-hawk matrix. The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings. FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Sept '24 0 1 12 5 0 Apr/May; June; July '24 0 1 10 6 1 March '24 0 1 11 5 1 Jan '24 0 2 9 4 1 Dec '23 0 2 9 4 1 Oct/Nov '23 0 2 7 5 2 Sept '23 0 4 3 6 3 June '23 0 3 3 8 3 March '23 0 2 3 10 2 Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2

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