Republicans try to stop Democrats’ suburban growth

Thirty-six of the 43 U.S. House seats that Democrats flipped from red to blue in the 2018 midterm elections were in suburban districts.

Now, Republicans who managed to survive the blue shift that swept Democrats to power in the House two years ago are fighting again to keep their seats, in a test of whether the GOP can fend off challenges in traditionally right-leaning metro areas, where polls show voters have cooled on President Trump.

Democrats currently have a 232 to 197 majority in the House, with one Libertarian, and nonpartisan election watchers expect the party to maintain its advantage or slightly expand it in Tuesday’s election.

One of those battlegrounds is in the St. Louis suburbs, where Mr. Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2016. GOP Rep. Ann Wagner, a former ambassador and co-chair of the Republican National Committee, outperformed Mr. Trump in her district that year, winning re-election by 21 points. In 2018, she fended off Democrat Cort VanOstran by just 4 points.

As Election Day approaches, internal GOP polling has Mr. Trump down by about 6 points in Missouri’s Second District, losing support among women, especially younger women, according to a Republican strategist familiar with the data.

Ms. Wagner’s voting record is largely in line with Mr. Trump’s agenda. But to beat her Democratic challenger, Jill Schupp, a state senator, Ms. Wagner needs some voters who are disillusioned with the president to make a distinction between her and the occupant of the White House.

One of Ms. Wagner’s final campaign ads stresses the need for kindness in difficult times as images of a drive-through Covid-19 testing site appear on the screen. The narrator talks about how Ms. Wagner wants to protect coverage for pre-existing conditions—Democrats have been hammering the congresswoman for voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act—and highlights her work on a bill to combat human trafficking. “Because doing good isn’t about left or right,” the narrator concludes, “but right or wrong.” The ad makes no mention of Mr. Trump.

Suburban voters want to vote for “a person who has integrity and empathy and cares about them,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a centrist group.

She said she expects Mr. Trump to trail Democrat Joe Biden in districts including Ms. Wagner’s, but still sees a path for GOP lawmakers to retain their seats.

“If Trump loses by double digits in these places, by more than 10, then it will be really hard for the Republican member to be elected,” Ms. Chamberlain said. “If he loses by 9 or so, our polling and our data show the Republican can still win the district because people are ticket splitting...They are voting for the person, not the R behind their name.”

The WSJ/NBC News poll released Sunday found Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden nationally by 10 points, and by 4 points in the suburbs, where the Democratic candidate has maintained a large lead among suburban women. Mr. Trump has said polls understate his standing with voters.

In 2018, Democrats picked up seats in blue metro areas such as Orange County, Calif.; North Jersey; Northern Virginia; and Denver.

This year, Democrats are pushing into suburbs of smaller, more-red-leaning metro areas such as St. Louis, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Cincinnati, San Antonio and Omaha, Neb., said Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The main reason, he said, is that President Trump is “politically radioactive among voters with a college degree, and particularly women.”

Ms. Wagner’s district is one of several that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) said he is watching closely on election night. Others are Indiana’s Fifth District, in the Indianapolis area, where Republican state Sen. Victoria Spartz, a businesswoman, and Democrat Christina Hale, a nonprofit leader and former state legislator, are in a close race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Susan Brooks, and a handful of GOP-held suburban House districts near Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas.

“If they win, you’re going to see a wave,” Mr. Hoyer said of the Democratic candidates.

Republicans said they are confident they will hang on. “Democrats are going to learn in a few days that their socialist agenda consisting of bigger government, higher taxes and defunding the police is a political loser,” said Michael McAdams, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

If Democrats do have a strong night, Ms. Wagner and other Republicans hope to survive by convincing voters their opponents are too liberal for their traditionally red-leaning districts. Ms. Wagner’s ads highlight Ms. Schupp’s voting record in the Missouri legislature, especially her support for a 2012 resolution urging Congress to pass a Medicare for All single-payer health-care plan. Ms. Schupp’s campaign said that Ms. Wagner’s attacks are misleading and that Ms. Schupp supports a public option, but not Medicare for All.

Former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who lost his bid for re-election in a Florida swing district in 2018, said Republicans who have worked hard to build their own identities separate from Mr. Trump are looking resilient ahead of Election Day.

Still, it is a balancing act. If GOP candidates aggressively challenge the president, then they could lose their base voters, Mr. Curbelo said. If they don’t, they could lose swing voters.

“When someone asks you, ‘Why did you vote for this tax bill?’ you can explain it,” he said. “But when someone asks, ‘Why do you think it’s OK for someone to insult minority groups or in any way excuse or tacitly endorse the white supremacy movement?’ I mean, those are tougher questions, and most Republicans in those districts are in a trap.”

White House officials have defended Mr. Trump’s language, saying he has condemned racism and white supremacy on numerous occasions.

At a rally in Pennsylvania earlier in October, Mr. Trump said he had been told suburban women don’t like the way he talks. “But I’m about law and order. I’m about having you safe,” he said. The president then made a direct appeal: “Suburban women, would you please like me? Please? I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?”

This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text