Pope Francis dies: Who will be the next Pope? Here’s a look at top contenders and Vatican’s secretive election process

As Pope Francis breathed his last on Monday, April 21, global focus now shifts to his possible successors. There is speculation that the United States— which has never had a pope—might put forward a contender: Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, a staunch social conservative.

It’s a sign of how the election could threaten what Francis’ supporters see as his legacy as a reforming pope. As the church has grown in more socially conservative parts of the world, particularly in Africa, the institution could swing away from his relatively liberal positions on issues such as LGBTQ rights, as reported by Bloomberg.

Also Read: Pope Francis never took salary despite being entitled to one. Here’s what he did with the money instead

In roughly two weeks, the College of Cardinals — the highest-ranking officials in the Church, appointed by the pope — will gather in a Conclave to choose a new pope. Around 135 cardinals, all male, will cast their votes, including 21 who were added by Pope Francis in December. This move by the late pontiff could increase the chances of a pope being chosen from Asia or Africa. The last Italian pope, John Paul I, passed away in 1978.

Because the election is held under a vow of complete secrecy, millions of Catholics around the world won’t know the outcome until white smoke rises from the Vatican, signalling a decision.

What is a conclave?

The conclave is the secret meeting where the College of Cardinals gathers to elect a new pope after the current one dies or resigns. The word “conclave” comes from Latin cum clave, meaning “with a key” — symbolising that the cardinals are locked away from the outside world until they reach a decision.

How is the pope elected during the conclave?

Eligibility to Vote:

Only cardinals under the age of 80 can vote. Currently, that’s about 135 men. The conclave is held in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican.

Secrecy: 

Cardinals are cut off from the outside world — no phones, internet, or communication with anyone outside.

Voting Process: 

Each cardinal writes the name of their chosen candidate on a secret ballot. The ballots are collected and counted. A candidate must receive a two-thirds majority to be elected.

Also Read: Pope Francis Death Highlights: Pope Francis died due to stroke, heart failure — Vatican; India declares 3-day mourning

Smoke Signals: 

After each round of voting, the ballots are burned. Black smoke (created by adding chemicals) means no decision has been made yet, while white smoke means a new pope has been elected.

Acceptance: 

Once someone receives the required votes, he’s asked if he accepts the position. If he says yes, he chooses a papal name. Then he appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica and is introduced to the world with the words: "Habemus Papam" — “We have a pope.”

Also Read: Pope Francis meets US Vice President JD Vance for a ‘few minutes’ on Easter Sunday at Vatican

The process is famously unpredictable, and being seen as a front-runner can actually work against a candidate, as captured by the old Roman saying: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” In the meantime, several prominent cardinals are already being talked about as “papabile” — potential papal candidates.

Who could become the next pope?

Pietro Parolin: Italy

Parolin, 70, is the current Vatican secretary of state and one of Italy's strongest contenders. He is well-known for his diplomatic skills and could be seen as a safe pair of hands within the Church.

Raymond Leo Burke: US

Burke, 76, was one of Francis’ most vocal critics and is a former archbishop of St Louis, Missouri. He opposed any softening in the pontiff’s position toward divorce, LGBTQ rights and, in 2014, said the church had become “like a ship without a rudder.”

Matteo Zuppi: Italy

The 69-year-old Italian cardinal could emerge as a continuity candidate if the election comes down to a contest between progressives and conservatives. He is the current president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy and is considered to be a favourite among those who want a continuation of Pope Francis’ policies. He is known for his humanitarian and diplomatic efforts, including a peace mission to Ukraine.

Also Read: Behind the ‘Conclave’: The race to succeed Pope Francis

Peter Turkson: Ghana

Turkson, 76, would be the first black Pope in modern history. He was a frontrunner during the 2013 conclave. Two years later, he helped to write Pope Francis’ encyclical on climate change. He is known for his relatively liberal views on social justice and human rights.

Luis Tagle: the Philippines

Tagle, 67, is prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, and a former archbishop of Manila. A strong advocate for greater inclusivity, he could emerge as the preferred candidate from the Church’s progressive wing.

Peter Erdo: Hungary

Erdo, 72, a Hungarian cardinal and Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, could be the preferred choice of those in the Church calling for a return to a more traditional theological doctrine.

Also Read: From gathering under Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel to ballots — Inside Vatican’s secret process for choosing a new pope

Mykola Bychok: Ukraine

The 45-year-old bishop and Eparch of Saints Peter and Paul of Melbourne could be one of the youngest candidates. He has been particularly vocal about the rights of the people of Ukraine following Russia’s invasion.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)