India’s relations with Pakistan to ‘remain strained’; elevated ‘risk of armed confrontation’ with China: US intel

India's equation with two of its neighbours, Pakistan and China, tells a tale of tension, ecological impact, and the shadow of nuclear capability, as per the latest Director of National Intelligence (DNI) annual threat assessment.

India-Pakistan conflict

The relationship dynamics with India are a mix of cautious calm and underlying tension, says the report. Following a renewed cease-fire in 2021, “relations will remain strained”, it adds.

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Pakistan's history of supporting groups hostile to India and India's current government's readiness to use military force add layers of unpredictability. The risk of escalation is palpable, with Kashmir and the threat of militant attacks being potential spark points for conflict.

“Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations,” the report says.

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“Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it adds.

India-China tension

The assessment considers India and China as major players in the global climate scene. The heavy reliance on coal for energy not only boosts their economies but also their greenhouse gas emissions, it says.

Despite ongoing talks and some resolved issues, the scar of a violent clash in 2020 with China has left India wary. Previous standoffs have shown that low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), if persistent, can escalate swiftly, it says.

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“The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests, and calls for U.S. intervention,” says the assessment.