It’s ‘nonsense’ that…: EC explains exit polls-actual election results ’mismatch’, slams early counting trends

Maharashtra, Jharkhand Election 2024 Dates Announcement: Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar on Tuesday explained the mismatch between the exit poll results and the official election results, which recently triggered a political upheaval in Haryana. He also slammed early election trends on the vote-counting day as "nonsense."

He said the Election Commission follows a process of counting and declaring results. The CEC said it's impossible to reveal results around 8:05 am when actual counting starts at 8:30 am. He said the EC usually updates its website with official results around 9:30 am on a regular counting day.

Twist in elections: Exit poll vs EC results

The EC's statement came after many exit polls wrongly predicted the official election results. A recent example is Haryana, where most of the exit polls had forecast a clear win for the Congress. On the result day, early trends showed the Congress leading in the Haryana assembly elections. However, a major turn-around declared the BJP as the winner of the state polls. 

Here are 6 shocking elections when exit poll predictions proved horribly wrong

It's 'nonsense' that…

CEC Kumar said there's an issue when the results trends start coming in at 8:05 am and 8:10 am, while the counting starts at 8.30 am. "This is nonsense," he said.

Kumar explained that the first counting starts at 8:30 am, but then at 8:05 am, there are reports coming in about a candidate leading and trailing. "I am just posing this question....do these initial trends come in to justify the exit polls?" the CEC asked.

He said the first results of Round 1 couldn't be revealed before at least 20 minutes (around 9:05 am) of the counting (which starts at 8:30 am). He said the EC puts out “the first result on the website at 9:31 am. ”Then the website is updated at 11:30 am and then at 1:30 pm," he said.

Official process of counting of votes

The CEC said, “It is possible that your [media] correspondent was present at the location and he told about the result first." 

"But in the official process, the results are first reflected on the screen, then the signature of the agent is taken, and it is justified then by the observer...so it may take half an hour to publish the results on the official website. So how can this result be declared before 9 am?” the Chief Election Commissioner said.

Exit polls and the mismatch could lead to 'serious issues'

Kumar said that first, there's an expectation of the exit polls, and then the "early trends [by media] are shown to justify those exit polls.

"So in reality, when the final results are announced, there's a mismatch between exit poll results and official results. That mismatch can lead to serious issues; sometimes even the gap between the expectation and achievement is nothing but frustrations," CEC Kumar said.

Exit polls and need for introspection

The Election Commission's top official said, "We don't govern exit polls...there's a need for introspection – to understand the sample size, where the survey was done...what's my responsibility if the exit poll results don't match the actual results..is there any disclosure or not..."

He said there are other bodies which govern this. "There's NBSA...which self regulates. I am sure the time has come that the association bodies which govern this will do some self regulation."