US Elections 2024: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in latest polls, but swing states stay locked

US Elections 2024: United States Vice President and Democratic Party presidential nominee Kamala Harris (59) is leading opponent Donald Trump (78), former US President and Republican nominee, in two recently conducted national polls, Bloomberg reported.

The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, while the CBS/Ipsos poll surveyed 3,129 registered voters in the US. Both polls surveyed registered voters and were released on September 22.

According to the report, these poll numbers come at a crucial time, as many states have begun early voting ahead of the November 2024 elections.

Kamala Leads, But Margin of Error Persists

Harris is leading Trump by 49 per cent to 44 per cent in the NBC News poll conducted from September 13-17. While the lead is 5 percentage points, the poll has a 5 per cent margin of error, so the race may be closer, the news channel reportedd.

Further, in the CBS/Ipsos poll conducted from September 18-20, Harris leads Trump by 52 per cent to 48 per cent. Notably, this poll was conducted after the apparent second assassination attempt against Trump on September 17, Bloomberg added.

NBC Polls Findings

The NBC News poll showed that the positive view of Harris has jumped 16 percentage points since she took over the Democratic nomination from US President Joe Biden in July 2024. In an earlier survey by the channel, 32 per cent of registered voters polled said they viewed Harris favourably, and this has jumped to 48 per cent in the September poll.

NBC further pointed out that this increase is the "largest any candidate has seen" since former US President George W Bush's approval rose after the September 11 twin tower attacks in 2001.

Early Voting Begins

The Bloomberg report also noted that early voting has begun in many states before the official election scheduled on November 5. Among the states that have started the process include Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia, with others expected to begin in October.

What is this and is it official? To answer the question, 'Early in-person voting' permits voters to vote in person before Election Day. These are legitimate votes and is allowed as “sometimes circumstances make it hard or impossible” for voters to cast their ballot on the day of itself, as per the US government website.

Most states in the US let voters cast their ballot in person during a designated early voting period. While some states require an “excuse”, some others do not.

Battleground 'Swing' States Remain Locked

With the race being close, a "limited number of battleground states" will likely determine who becomes the next US President, the Bloomberg report noted.

The CBS/Ipsos poll it said had listed all seven swing states as "tossups", with Harris making it over the "majority" line but within the margin of error in five of these states. Further, both Trump and Harris are strongly pushing their campaigns in the swing states to mobilise voters, it added.

“This election is going to be close. We have always known that. And in a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, we know that this is going to be a close race,” Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan Governor and Democrat from a swing state, told CNN on September 22.

The CBS polls also found that Harris has narrowed the gap with Trump on the widely acknowledged important election battle point — the economy.

The CBS poll showed Trump led Harris 53 per cent to 47 per cent on the issue in September, compared to 56 per cent to 43 per cent in August.

Asked about the intent of Trump’s unsubstantiated claims about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs, 65 per cent of the surveyed registered voters told CBS it was "to make people fearful of migrants" and 63 per cent said the stories were "probably false".

(With inputs from Bloomberg)